A new international study published today in BioScience states that the Earth’s climate system is rapidly becoming unstable and that, although signs of major societal change are emerging, broader and faster action is needed.
The report, “The State of the Climate in 2026: Challenges and Opportunities”, which tracks 16 of the Earth’s climate indicators, finds that seven are at record extremes and several others are also moving in an unfavourable direction, raising concerns about interacting feedback mechanisms and the growing risk of crossing critical tipping points.
“Rapid destabilisation is now a diagnosis rather than a warning about the future,” says William Ripple, one of the report’s lead authors and a distinguished professor emeritus at Oregon State University. “Human activity, primarily fossil fuel consumption, is overloading the planet’s life-support systems,” adds Unai Pascual, an Ikerbasque Research Professor at the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) and a co-author of the report.
According to the authors, the analysis urges world leaders and policymakers to “abandon the business-as-usual approach that has persisted despite decades of evidence showing that human activities are driving dangerous changes in the climate”.
Record highs
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, at 428 parts per million, are now higher than at any other time in the past 2 million years and approximately 50% above those recorded before the start of the industrial era in the late 18th century. The summer of 2026 saw the highest temperatures ever documented in many regions of the world, while global ocean temperatures also reached an all-time high in July.
“Extreme weather events are intensifying in many regions of the world, demonstrating how climate change is increasingly affecting people’s everyday lives,” says Unai Pascual. “We face increasingly destructive heatwaves, floods, droughts, storms and wildfires, causing mounting losses of human life, infrastructure, food security, biodiversity and economic stability. However, these events are not merely natural disasters; they arise from the interaction between climate hazards and human social systems, and are shaped by differences in social conditions that determine who faces the greatest risks and vulnerabilities.”
The authors stress that reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains essential and also call for adaptation measures that can be implemented rapidly, such as urban cooling, wetland and mangrove restoration, wildfire preparedness, water conservation, distributed solar power and more resilient food systems.
They add that climate injustice is a global structural problem, with the communities least responsible for historical emissions, particularly in the Global South and small island nations, already suffering disproportionately severe consequences from climate disruption.
“Many climate solutions are already technically feasible and increasingly cost-competitive; however, because climate change is driven by interconnected energy, economic, ecological and social systems, truly meaningful progress is likely to depend on integrated responses across multiple sectors and scales,” says Ripple. “With low-carbon sources already providing nearly 43% of the world’s electricity, we may be witnessing the emergence of what we call the ‘Age of Electricity’,” says co-lead author Christopher Wolf, a former postdoctoral researcher at Oregon State University. “This is a reason for hope, but fossil fuel use and emissions continue to reach record levels, so the transition needs to accelerate dramatically.”
Pascual also warns that “achieving the necessary emissions reductions depends on systemic transformations in energy generation, consumption patterns, food systems and economic priorities, including reshaping paradigms of progress and development. All of this must also align with the protection of nature.”
Report findings
- The pace of global warming appears to be accelerating, nearly doubling from around 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2010 to approximately 0.36 degrees per decade since then.
- A very strong El Niño event is expected to develop this autumn, potentially contributing substantially to global warming over the coming months and putting 2026 on track to become one of the warmest years ever recorded.
- Glacier thickness and Greenland’s ice mass are at their lowest levels ever recorded. In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has experienced intense melting episodes, contributing to a sixfold increase in the volume of summer meltwater.
- Global tree cover loss due to fires reached 10.8 million hectares in 2025, an area roughly equivalent to the size of Tennessee, making it the third-highest figure on record. Increasing wildfire activity is both a consequence of climate change and a growing source of greenhouse gas emissions.
- Fossil fuel consumption rose by 0.9% in 2025, with oil (+1.0%), coal (+0.4%) and gas (+1.3%) all reaching record highs, while annual energy-related carbon dioxide emissions exceeded 41 gigatonnes for the first time.
- On a positive note, the rate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has declined for four consecutive years, and solar and wind energy consumption has increased by around 18%.
Other contributors to the report include Jacob Bukoski of OSU’s College of Forestry; Jillian Gregg of Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates; Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania; Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Chi Xu of Nanjing University; Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University; Thomas M. Newsome of the University of Sydney; and Anjal Prakash of FLAME University.
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